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1. Feature: Could a Big Rate Cut Be Coming? (4 min read)

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3. Dear TCoL: I Know SEO But What Is GEO? Please Explain!

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Small and mid-sized business owners don’t typically spend their mornings refreshing Fed calendars—but in 2025, many are doing just that. Why? Because borrowing costs remain stubbornly high. Variable-rate loans now run north of 8%, and unsecured credit lines climb even higher.

For businesses relying on Small Business Administration (SBA) funding, lines of credit, or short-term loans to manage cash flow, these rates are more than a footnote—they’re a daily problem.

The big question: Could the Federal Reserve finally cut interest rates in the coming months? Rumors, rhetoric, and real economic data are all swirling, but the reality is more nuanced than a headline. Here’s what business owners need to know, without any political hype.

The High-Rate Drag on Main Street

The Fed’s benchmark rate—currently 5.25% to 5.50%—hasn’t moved since mid-2023, making this one of the longest pause periods in recent history. While this stability has seemed to help cool inflation, it also raised the floor on borrowing. Most SMB loans, especially those tied to the prime rate or LIBOR successors, usually adjust upward as the Fed holds steady.

For a business with $500,000 in SBA-backed debt, these rates can mean paying thousands more per year in interest alone. That’s money not going into new hires, inventory, equipment, or tech. Recent small business surveys confirm this squeeze: growth is slowing, margins are thinning, and some expansion plans are on hold.

Even a modest rate cut—say 25 basis points—would be helpful. But is a cut coming soon?

What the Fed Watchers Are Saying

Despite some hopeful headlines, the odds of a rate cut at the Fed’s July 29–30 meeting remain low. As of this week, CME FedWatch shows only about a 4–5% probability of a July cut. The Fed still sees strength in the labor market and modest disinflation—not enough, in its view, to justify immediate action.

Looking further ahead, the picture softens. By December, the market is pricing in a 43–50% chance of at least one 25 bps cut. A smaller number of forecasters—roughly 40%—expect two cuts by year-end, bringing the federal funds rate closer to 4.00% if conditions allow.

So, while a July cut seems unlikely, the door isn’t closed for later in 2025.

What’s Behind the Market’s Hopefulness?

One factor boosting optimism: the $27 billion federal surplus reported for June 2025, the first monthly surplus since 2017. That’s not small news. Much of this surplus came from sharply higher tariff revenues, which hit $113 billion fiscal year-to-date—up 86% from last year. In June alone, tariffs brought in over $27 billion, a 301% year-over-year jump.

Crucially, this spike in revenue hasn’t reignited inflation. In fact, inflation is sitting at a four-year low, which means the Fed may soon find less reason to maintain elevated rates. Surpluses could also reduce federal borrowing needs, which would help ease overall credit market pressure—a bonus for rate-sensitive SMBs.

Still, a few months of positive data likely won’t override the Fed’s long-term caution. Chair Jerome Powell has said repeatedly the committee wants to “see more data” before acting.

Leadership Rumors

Adding to the uncertainty: headlines about Powell himself. Media reports this month suggested Powell is considering stepping down, partly due to fallout from a $2.5 billion renovation of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters. That figure is $600–700 million over original projections, and the project has triggered bipartisan scrutiny in Congress.

Powell, for his part, denies wrongdoing—and has publicly stated he intends to complete his term through May 2026.

Can the president remove the Fed Chair? Technically, yes—but only “for cause” under the Federal Reserve Act. That means serious misconduct or neglect, not simply policy disagreements. Legal experts widely agree: any attempt to remove Powell would likely trigger a court battle and some type of market upheaval (maybe good or maybe bad depending on who you believe).

For SMBs, the takeaway is this: Powell’s position appears stable for now. But if a leadership change were to occur, the outlook for interest rate cuts could improve.

How SMBs Can Prepare—Now

Whether or not a rate cut comes this year, smart SMBs are already preparing. Here's how:

1. Know your debt. Review your current loan terms and understand which loans are variable and which are fixed. If rates drop, variable-rate debt could become less painful—but if the Fed holds, refinancing might still be smart. Regardless, it is a good practice to calendar your loan maturity dates with an alert 3-6 months in advance to give you time to shop. 

2. Talk to lenders. Don’t wait for the Fed to act. Explore options to lock in better terms now or prepare to move quickly if rates drop. If there is a big rate change, get to your lender quickly to secure an early refi spot.

3. Diversify funding sources. Peer-to-peer lending, vendor financing, SBA, or microloans can offer breathing room if traditional banks remain tight.

4. Watch key dates. The next FOMC meeting is July 29–30, with Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET on July 30. Tune in at federalreserve.gov or follow reliable financial media. Also, monitor mid-July inflation data, which could shape the Fed’s tone heading into the fall.

Final Word: Optimism with Caution

Don’t let headlines or politics set your financial strategy. While the Fed is under pressure and the economy is flashing mixed signals, the path to lower rates is still uncertain in the eyes of the Fed Reserve.

That said, positive fiscal news and cooling inflation give hope that rate relief could arrive by year-end.

For SMBs, staying informed, flexible, and prepared is the best strategy in an environment where clarity often comes slowly—and change happens fast.

Dear TCoL: I Know SEO But What Is GEO? Please Explain!

Question: I know what SEO (search engine optimization) is, but explain what GEO is and what I should do to get started at my company?

Answer: Great question—and yes, we’ve got you covered.

Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) is the practice of optimizing your content for AI-powered “answer engines” like ChatGPT, Google’s AI Overviews, Grok, or Perplexity. Unlike traditional search engines that list a series of links, these AI tools synthesize answers directly from large pools of data—including your content if it’s clear, credible, and well-structured.

GEO makes your content easier for large language models (LLMs) to understand, trust, and cite. Instead of aiming for search rankings, you're aiming to be the source that generative tools pull from.

To get started, focus on:

• Clear, user-focused language

• Credible stats and unique phrasing

• Structuring content with schema markup

• Addressing specific user intent

We recently published an article to help you get started: You Don’t Need to Understand AI. You Need to Use It Better Than Your Competition.

If you want to dive deeper, we recommend reading SEO Is Dead. Long Live GEO by Gaurav Vohra—find it here.

Your future customers aren’t Googling. They’re asking AI. Turn your business into a credible source for AI.

Have an interesting business question and need a free bit of advice? Send your question to [email protected]. No confidential info, please!